Belief Index is currently in private alpha. Access is invite-only and experimental. See Risk Factors and Disclosures for important information before participating.
The Problem Belief Index Solves
Prediction markets are emerging as one of the most efficient mechanisms for aggregating beliefs about future events — elections, economic data releases, policy decisions, and more. But investing in them today presents challenges that will be familiar to anyone who remembers what equity markets looked like before index funds:Fragmented liquidity
Fragmented liquidity
Each prediction market is a small, isolated pool of capital. Polymarket hosts hundreds of individual markets, each with its own order book and liquidity profile. Constructing a diversified portfolio across dozens of these markets is operationally burdensome and requires constant monitoring.
No diversified exposure
No diversified exposure
There is no single instrument that allows an investor to express a thematic view — such as “interest rates are heading lower in 2026” or “Republicans will outperform expectations in the midterms” — across multiple related events at once. Every position must be sourced, sized, and managed individually.
Severe jump risk
Severe jump risk
Individual prediction markets are binary: they settle at exactly $1 or $0. A single unexpected outcome can wipe a position to zero overnight. This discontinuous payoff profile makes concentrated single-market exposure unsuitable for most investors seeking stable returns.
Resolution complexity
Resolution complexity
Each market has its own resolution date, settlement rules, and oracle. Managing a portfolio of these requires tracking dozens of expiration events, handling settlements manually, and reallocating capital as markets resolve. This operational overhead is prohibitive at scale.
The Solution
Belief Index solves these problems by applying the core principles of index investing — diversification, systematic methodology, and transparent valuation — to prediction markets.Curated, themed baskets
Each series bundles 5-15+ related prediction markets around a coherent theme, selected according to published criteria including liquidity, resolution clarity, and thematic relevance.
Transparent, rules-based NAV
Net Asset Value is computed at periodic NAV windows — currently every 30 minutes, subject to change — using a published methodology. Every formula is disclosed; every computation is independently verifiable. No black boxes.
Mutual fund mechanics
Shares are minted and redeemed at NAV windows using forward pricing, the same mechanism used by open-end mutual funds. This ensures fair treatment of all investors.
Series Examples
Each series tracks a coherent theme, allowing investors to express macro or event-driven views:| Series | Theme | Typical Markets |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Monetary Policy Easing Expectations 2026 | Interest rate trajectory | Fed rate decisions, inflation targets, employment thresholds |
| U.S. Presidential Election Republican Expectations 2028 | Election outcomes | Candidate victories, party-level results, primary outcomes |
| U.S. Macro Data 2026 | Economic data releases | GDP prints, unemployment figures, CPI targets |
How Belief Index Compares
| Feature | Individual Prediction Markets | Belief Index |
|---|---|---|
| Diversification | Single event exposure | Themed basket of 5-15+ markets |
| Jump risk | Binary ($0 or $1) | Smoothed across multiple uncorrelated events |
| Operational burden | Monitor and manage each position | Single holding per theme |
| Valuation | Check each order book | Published NAV at regular windows |
| Verification | Trust the platform | On-chain positions, published methodology |
| Entry/exit | Trade each market individually | Mint/redeem shares at NAV |
Traditional Finance Analogies
- Like an Index Fund / ETF
- Like a Structured Product
Just as an S&P 500 index fund bundles hundreds of stocks into a single investable product, a Belief Index series bundles multiple prediction markets into a single position. You own shares of the basket, not the individual constituents directly. Like an ETF, Belief Index has a creation/redemption mechanism: new shares are created when investors deposit capital and shares are retired when investors redeem. The key difference is that Belief Index shares are not exchange-traded — minting and redemption happen directly with the fund at NAV, like an open-end mutual fund.
Key Principles
- Transparent — The NAV methodology is fully published. Investors can replicate any computation independently using public market data and a spreadsheet.
- Systematic — Index composition and weighting follow rules-based methodology, not discretionary judgment. Market selection criteria are defined and documented.
- Theme-driven — Each series tracks a coherent risk domain, enabling investors to express specific macro or event-driven views with precision.
- Institutional mechanics — Forward pricing, pro-rata allocation, independent gating of mints and redemptions, and double-entry fund accounting follow established mutual fund conventions.
Getting Started
How It Works
Follow the complete investor lifecycle from deposit through redemption.
Why Belief Index?
The investment thesis for diversified prediction market exposure.
Index Series
How themed baskets are constructed, weighted, and managed.
NAV Methodology
The transparent, verifiable methodology behind every valuation.