Belief Index is a structured investment product that bundles prediction market outcome tokens into themed baskets (called “series”). Each series provides diversified exposure to a group of related events — like an ETF for prediction markets. See Introduction for a full overview.
Who is this for?
Belief Index is designed for finance-literate investors who want systematic, diversified exposure
to prediction market outcomes. The product is currently in private alpha and access is
invite-only.
Is this an ETF?
No. Belief Index shares are not exchange-traded and do not trade on any secondary market. The
mechanics are closer to a mutual fund: shares are minted and redeemed at periodic NAV windows
using forward pricing. There is no intraday trading of shares.
Is this regulated?
Belief Index operates in an evolving regulatory environment. Investors are solely responsible for determining whether their participation is permitted under applicable law. See Disclosures for the formal legal framework.
NAV is computed at periodic NAV windows — currently every 30 minutes (subject to change). Each NAV computation uses the latest available prices from the underlying prediction markets.
Can I verify the NAV myself?
Yes. The NAV Methodology is fully published. You can fetch public
price data from Polymarket’s order book, apply the published formula, and compare your result to
the published NAV. See the “Independent Verification” section of the methodology page for
step-by-step instructions.
Why might my computed NAV differ slightly from the published value?
Small discrepancies (typically in the 8th decimal place) can arise from timing differences — your
price fetch may occur seconds before or after the system’s fetch, during which prices may have
changed slightly.
What does 'stale' mean?
A stale NAV computation means the system could not fetch a current price for one or more underlying markets and used the last known good price as a fallback. Stale computations are flagged transparently. See NAV Methodology — Staleness.
During the alpha program, minimums may vary. Contact Belief Systems for current minimum investment requirements.
How do I deposit funds?
Open the deposit panel in your portfolio, enter a dollar amount, and sign two transactions in your
Ethereum wallet (a one-time USDC approval, then the deposit). Funds typically land in your cash
balance in about 30–60 minutes. Questions? Email
contact@beliefsystems.xyz. Full walkthrough: Deposits &
Withdrawals.
How quickly can I get my money back?
Redemptions are processed at the next NAV window, not instantly. After redemption, withdrawal
processing may take additional time. Belief Index is designed for investors with a medium-term
horizon, not those needing instant liquidity. See Redeeming Shares.
Can I lose everything?
Yes. If every market in a series resolves against the tracked outcome, the series NAV would go to
zero. While diversification reduces this risk, substantial losses — including total loss — are
possible. See Risk Factors.
What happens when a market in my series resolves?
Resolved markets are priced at their settlement value ($1 for the winning outcome, $0 for the losing outcome). The series continues operating with remaining active markets. When all markets resolve, the series reaches its terminal NAV. See Index Series — Lifecycle.
Can the markets in my series change after I invest?
It depends on the series’ Maturity Type. Fixed series are locked at publication — composition never changes. Perpetual series may add new constituent markets over time through formal reconstitution events at a published review cadence; markets are never removed. Minting into a Perpetual series requires a one-time blocking acknowledgment that composition may evolve, that rebalance costs (reconstitution drag) are absorbed in NAV, and that mint/redeem may be paused during a reconstitution (typically resolves within roughly 48 hours). See Perpetual Series and Risk Factors — Reconstitution Risk.
Belief Index supports three fee types: management fee (annual, accrued per NAV window), mint fee (one-time on investment), and redemption fee (one-time on exit). Fee rates are configured per series and subject to change. Current rates are visible in each series’ details. See Fees.
Will fees change?
Belief Systems reserves the right to introduce, modify, or remove fees at any time. Any fee changes are reflected in the series configuration and apply from the next NAV window.
Assets are held in a dedicated custody wallet controlled by Belief Systems on the Polygon blockchain. All holdings are on-chain and publicly verifiable. Withdrawals require human approval, a mandatory cooldown period, and automated solvency checks. There is no independent third-party custodian during the alpha program. See Asset Security.
Are my funds insured?
No. There is no FDIC, SIPC, or equivalent insurance on custody assets. Investing in Belief Index
carries custody risk. See Risk Factors.
Can I verify that my assets exist?
Yes. All assets are held on the Polygon blockchain and are publicly verifiable. See On-Chain
Verification.
How are withdrawals protected?
Every withdrawal goes through a multi-step process: admin review and approval, a mandatory 15-minute cooldown period, pre-flight solvency verification, and on-chain confirmation. The system also automatically flags suspicious patterns (first-time withdrawals, large withdrawals, rapid withdrawals) for additional scrutiny. See Asset Security for full details.
Assets are held on the Polygon blockchain. pUSD (Polymarket USD) deposits and withdrawals use the Polygon network. Prediction market outcome tokens are ERC-1155 tokens on Polygon.
Where do the prices come from?
Prices are sourced from the Polymarket Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) — a public API. The
system reads the best bid and best ask for each tracked outcome token and computes the midprice.
What happens if Polymarket goes down?
If the price feed is unavailable, the system falls back to the last known good price and marks the
computation as stale. Extended outages could prevent NAV computation entirely, which would pause
minting and redemption. See Risk Factors — Technology Risk.
Why does it take 30–60 minutes?
Funds move from Ethereum mainnet to our settlement network through Polygon’s PoS bridge, an audited piece of public infrastructure operated by Polygon Labs. The 30–60 minute window is the bridge’s standard finalization time. You don’t need to manage any of the bridging yourself.