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Common questions about the indices, the published data, and – for invited participants – the Alpha Program.

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General

Belief Index is a family of rules-based indices that measure how prediction markets price themed categories of real-world event risk. Each index (a “series”) condenses a basket of related event contracts into a single published level – like the S&P 500 for equities, but for event probabilities. See Introduction for a full overview.
Anyone who needs a citable, methodologically stable read on how markets price event risk: researchers and academics, journalists and analysts, risk and strategy teams, and product issuers evaluating an index to license. The data is public and free to cite with attribution.
No. A Belief Index is a published index – a measurement, not an investment product. The distinction is the same as between the S&P 500 itself (a number computed by an index provider) and an S&P 500 fund (an investable product an issuer builds on it). No publicly available product tracks a Belief Index today. Issuers interested in referencing a series under license can contact Index Services.
Belief Systems publishes index data and research; the indices themselves are informational and are not registered with any regulator. Separately, the Alpha Program is a private, invitation-only program limited to verified accredited investors – it is not open to the public, and nothing on this site or in these docs is an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Alpha Program interests are not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state securities regulator; they are made available in reliance on exemptions from registration. See Disclosures for the formal legal framework.
Use Source: Belief Systems (beliefsystems.xyz). When describing index movements, percentage changes over a stated period are the most robust framing. Levels are theoretical values computed from midprices – see Risk Factors for what they do and do not represent.
NAV is computed at periodic NAV windows – currently every 30 minutes (subject to change). Each computation uses the latest available prices from the underlying prediction markets, and the index level is published on the same cadence.
Yes. The NAV Methodology is fully published. You can fetch public price data from the underlying venue’s order book, apply the published formula, and compare your result to the published value. See the “Independent Verification” section of the methodology page for step-by-step instructions.
Timing differences are the usual cause – your price fetch may occur seconds before or after the system’s fetch, producing discrepancies of roughly 0.0001 to 0.001. Differences below 0.0000001 are normal rounding. See the verification-issues table in NAV Methodology.
A stale computation means the system could not fetch a current price for one or more underlying markets and used the last known good price as a fallback. Stale computations are flagged transparently. See NAV Methodology – Staleness.
Resolved markets are priced at their settlement value ($1 for the winning outcome, $0 for the losing outcome). The series continues publishing with its remaining active markets. When all markets resolve, the series reaches its terminal NAV. See Index Series – Lifecycle.
It depends on the series’ Maturity Type. Fixed series are locked at publication – composition never changes. Perpetual series may add new constituent markets over time through formal reconstitution events at a published review cadence; markets are never removed. Reconstitutions are chain-linked so the published level stays continuous across composition changes. See Perpetual Series.

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Alpha Program

The questions below concern the private, invitation-only Alpha Program for verified accredited investors. The program is not open to the public, and nothing here is an offer or solicitation. See Disclosures.
During the alpha program, minimums may vary. Invited participants can contact Belief Systems for current requirements.
Via the deposit panel in the portfolio: USDC from an Ethereum wallet (funds typically land in the cash balance in about 30–60 minutes, moved through Polygon’s PoS bridge automatically) or a US dollar bank wire (usually 1–3 business days). Full walkthrough: Deposits & Withdrawals.
Redemptions are processed at the next NAV window, not instantly. Once proceeds are in the cash balance, a withdrawal returns them as native USDC to an Ethereum-mainnet wallet (usually within a few hours) or as a US dollar bank wire (1–3 business days). The program is designed for a medium-term horizon, not instant liquidity. See Redeeming Shares.
Yes. If every market in a series resolves against the tracked outcome, the series NAV would go to zero. While diversification reduces this risk, substantial losses – including total loss – are possible. See Risk Factors.
The program supports three fee types: management fee (annual, accrued per NAV window), mint fee (one-time on subscription), and redemption fee (one-time on exit). Fee rates are configured per series and subject to change; current rates are visible in each series’ details. Published index levels are always computed gross of fees. See Fees.
Belief Systems reserves the right to introduce, modify, or remove fees at any time. Any fee changes are reflected in the series configuration and apply from the next NAV window.
Assets are held in a dedicated custody wallet controlled by Belief Systems on the Polygon blockchain. All holdings are on-chain and publicly verifiable. Withdrawals require human approval and automated solvency checks before any funds move. There is no independent third-party custodian during the alpha program. See Asset Security.
No. There is no FDIC, SIPC, or equivalent insurance on custody assets. Participation carries custody risk. See Risk Factors.
Every withdrawal goes through a multi-step process: admin review and approval, an internal safeguard buffer, pre-flight solvency verification, and on-chain confirmation. The system also automatically flags suspicious patterns (first-time withdrawals, large withdrawals, rapid withdrawals) for additional scrutiny. See Asset Security for full details.

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Technical

Constituent positions are held on the Polygon blockchain – prediction market outcome tokens are ERC-1155 tokens on Polygon, and custody balances are publicly queryable there. See On-Chain Verification.
Prices are sourced from the underlying prediction market venue’s order book, which is publicly readable via API. The system reads the best bid and best ask for each tracked outcome token and computes the midprice.
If the price feed is unavailable, the system falls back to the last known good price and marks the computation as stale. Extended outages could suspend NAV computation – and therefore index publication – entirely. See Risk Factors.