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Documentation Index

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Belief Index operates like an open-end mutual fund. Investors subscribe (mint) and redeem shares at periodic NAV windows — not continuously like an exchange. This section walks through the complete lifecycle of an investment, from initial deposit through final withdrawal.
If you are familiar with ETF creation/redemption or mutual fund subscription mechanics, the Belief Index flow will feel familiar. The key difference is that the underlying assets are prediction market outcome tokens rather than equities or bonds.

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The Investor Lifecycle

1

Fund your account

Fund your account with USDC from your Ethereum wallet. You enter the amount, sign two transactions (a one-time approval and the deposit), and the funds land in your cash balance in about 30–60 minutes — analogous to wiring cash to a fund custodian or settling a transfer into a brokerage account. The dollar value you sent is the dollar value credited; we handle the on-chain mechanics behind the scenes.
2

Place a Mint Order

Select a series (e.g., “U.S. Monetary Policy Easing Expectations 2026”) and specify how much pUSD you want to invest. Your funds are locked while the order is pending, preventing double-spending.You can cancel an unprocessed order at any time before the next NAV window, and your funds will unlock immediately.
3

NAV Window Execution

At the next scheduled NAV window, the system computes the current Net Asset Value. Your order executes at that window’s NAV per share — this is forward pricing, the same mechanism used by mutual funds to prevent arbitrage against existing shareholders.All orders submitted before the window cutoff are processed together in a single batch.
4

Receive Shares

New shares are created and credited to your account at the computed NAV per share price. Each share represents a pro-rata claim on the series’ underlying assets — the prediction market positions, any uninvested cash, net of accrued fees.Minting new shares at NAV does not dilute existing holders. The incoming capital is proportional to the shares issued.
5

Hold and Monitor

While you hold shares, the NAV updates at each window as underlying prediction market prices move. You can track performance via the published index level, which starts at 100 at inception and moves proportionally with the underlying basket.As individual markets resolve (settle at $1 or $0), the series automatically incorporates the settlement prices into NAV.
6

Redeem Shares

When you want to exit, place a redemption order specifying how many shares (or how much pUSD value) you wish to redeem. At the next NAV window, your shares are burned and pUSD proceeds are credited to your uninvested balance.The system liquidates a proportional slice of each underlying position to generate proceeds — preserving the basket’s composition for remaining holders.
7

Withdraw

Withdraw from your cash balance to your wallet. Withdrawals are processed after admin review and a mandatory security cooldown.
NAV windows are the periodic checkpoints at which all orders are processed and valuations are computed. Think of them as the fund’s “daily cut-off” — but occurring more frequently.
PropertyDetail
FrequencyCurrently every 30 minutes (subject to change)
Pricing modelForward pricing — orders execute at the next window’s NAV, not the current one
Batch processingAll pending orders in a window are processed simultaneously
FairnessIf capacity is constrained, all orders are scaled by the same pro-rata factor — no queue advantage
IndependenceMinting and redemption are gated independently per series — one may be open while the other is paused
Forward pricing means your order executes at the NAV computed after you submit, not at the NAV you see when placing the order. This prevents a well-known exploit in fund management: if investors could buy at a known price, they could use information about price movements between the current and next window to trade against existing holders.This is standard practice across the mutual fund industry and is required by regulation in most jurisdictions. It ensures fair treatment of all investors — both new subscribers and existing holders.
This is not instant trading. Orders placed between NAV windows queue until the next window. If you need immediate liquidity or real-time execution, Belief Index is not designed for that use case. The product is intended for investors with a medium-term horizon.

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What Happens Inside the Basket

When you mint shares, the system acquires a weighted basket of prediction market outcome tokens on your behalf. These tokens are held in managed custody and valued at each NAV window using the published methodology. 
Your Investment ($1,000)
    |
Mint at NAV Window ($10.00/share -> 100 shares)
    |
Your 100 shares represent pro-rata ownership of:
    |-- Market A outcome tokens (weight: 14.3%)
    |-- Market B outcome tokens (weight: 14.3%)
    |-- Market C outcome tokens (weight: 14.3%)
    |-- Market D outcome tokens (weight: 14.3%)
    |-- Market E outcome tokens (weight: 14.3%)
    |-- Market F outcome tokens (weight: 14.3%)
    |-- Market G outcome tokens (weight: 14.3%)
    + any uninvested pUSD held as liquidity buffer

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What Moves the Share Price

NAV per share changes based on three factors:
The underlying prediction markets move as new information arrives — polling data, economic releases, policy announcements, and other catalysts shift the implied probabilities of event outcomes. Each NAV window reprices all positions using the latest order book data from Polymarket.For example, if a strong jobs report is released and the market suddenly prices a lower probability of rate cuts, all rate-related markets in a rates series would adjust — and the NAV would reflect those movements at the next window.
When an event resolves, the outcome token settles to $1 (if the tracked outcome occurred) or $0 (if it did not). This is immediately reflected in NAV.Resolution events are the defining feature of prediction market investing: they create discrete, binary value changes. A diversified basket absorbs these events across multiple positions, smoothing the impact of any single resolution.
If management fees are enabled, they accrue at each NAV window as a small reduction in NAV per share. This is identical to how expense ratios work in traditional funds — the fee is embedded in the NAV, not charged separately.Fee rates are configured per series and subject to change. See Fees for details.
Minting and redeeming at NAV does not dilute or boost NAV per share. New shares are created at the current NAV, so the per-share value for existing holders is unchanged. This is a fundamental property of open-end fund accounting.

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Partial Fills and Capacity Limits

In certain conditions — high demand, limited underlying market liquidity, or risk limits — a NAV window may not have enough capacity to fill all orders at full size. When this occurs:
  1. All orders in the window are scaled by the same pro-rata factor (e.g., 80%)
  2. The filled portion executes at NAV and shares are issued normally
  3. The unfilled portion is returned to your available balance
  4. No investor receives preferential treatment — first-come-first-served does not apply
  • Total mint requests in a window: $1,000,000
  • Available capacity: $800,000
  • Pro-rata factor: 80%
If you requested $50,000:
  • Filled: $40,000 (80%) at NAV per share
  • Unfilled: $10,000 returned to your uninvested balance
Every investor in the window receives the same 80% fill rate.

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Safety and Risk Controls

The system incorporates multiple layers of risk controls, all designed to preserve solvency and fairness:
ControlPurpose
NAV validity checksOrders are only processed when a valid, non-stale NAV can be computed
Liquidity-based capsExecution is bounded by available market depth in underlying positions
Market impact limitsMaximum participation rates prevent the system from moving underlying prices
Independent gatingMinting and redemption can be paused independently per series
Integrity haltsAutomated halts if ledger reconciliation detects any discrepancy
These controls may result in paused windows, partial fills, or temporarily restricted activity. This is by design — the system prioritizes solvency and fairness over continuous availability.

NAV Methodology

How NAV is computed at each window, step by step.

Minting Shares

Detailed mechanics of buying shares.

Redeeming Shares

How to exit your position and receive proceeds.

Deposits & Withdrawals

Getting pUSD into and out of your account.