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A series is the fundamental unit of a Belief Index – a themed basket of prediction market contracts, each assigned a weight, tracked and published as a single index. If equity indices are baskets of stocks, a Belief Index series is a basket of event contracts.

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What Is a Series?

Think of a series as a focused, thematic index. Just as the S&P 500 is a basket of 500 stocks representing U.S. large-cap equities, a Belief Index series is a basket of prediction markets representing a specific category of event risk. Each Belief Index series declares a Maturity Type at publication. Fixed series have a finite life set by their constituent markets and reach a terminal NAV when all markets settle. Perpetual series are open-ended and may evolve through formal reconstitution events. The classification is immutable once a series publishes.

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Series Examples

The series measures the theme, not individual contracts. A single published level condenses an entire category of event risk into one diversified reading.

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Naming Conventions

Each series follows a structured naming convention designed for institutional clarity: Canonical name format:
Belief [Geographic Scope] [Risk Domain] [Directional Expectation] [Time Horizon] Index
Each series also has a short ticker (e.g., “USDOVE”, “PRESR28”) for compact reference. Tickers are designed to be recognizable alongside institutional identifiers like SPX, VIX, or SOFR.
Directional expectations are always framed as expectations, never as outcomes or guarantees. “Dovish Stance Expectations” describes which markets are tracked, not a prediction that rates will fall.

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Composition

A series composition defines exactly which markets are included and how they contribute to the index: Weights are normalized so they sum to exactly 1.0 – this mathematical property guarantees that the Raw NAV always falls between 0 and 1. See NAV Methodology for the normalization formula.
A rates-themed series with 7 markets, each assigned a raw weight of 0.1429:Sum of raw weights: 1.0003. After normalization: each weight = 0.14286; sum = 1.00000.Equal weighting means no single market dominates the index. A surprise in any one market affects approximately 14.3% of the total NAV.

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Series Lifecycle

Each series progresses through defined states as its underlying markets evolve toward resolution:
1

Active

All underlying markets are open and trading. NAV is computed at each window using live midpoint prices from the underlying prediction market order book, and the index level is published on the regular cadence.
2

Partially Resolved

One or more markets have settled while others remain active. Resolved markets use their settlement price ($1 or $0) in the NAV computation. The series continues publishing normally.This is the most common state for a mature series, as individual events resolve on different timelines.
3

Fully Resolved

All underlying markets have settled. The series reaches its terminal NAV – a definitive final value that will not change. No further price updates occur, and the published level is final.

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Resolution Mechanics

When an individual market in the series resolves:
  • If the tracked outcome won: the market’s contribution to NAV becomes $1.00 (maximum value)
  • If the tracked outcome lost: the market’s contribution to NAV becomes $0.00 (zero value)
  • The resolved market continues to contribute to NAV at its settlement price – it is not removed from the basket
Consider a 5-market equal-weighted series (each market has 20% weight) with a current Raw NAV of 0.60:
  • Market A resolves: tracked outcome wins (price goes to $1.00 from $0.75)
  • Effect: The Raw NAV increases by approximately 0.20 x ($1.00 - $0.75) = +0.05
  • New approximate Raw NAV: 0.65
Conversely, if Market A had resolved with the tracked outcome losing (price goes to $0.00 from $0.75):
  • Effect: The Raw NAV decreases by approximately 0.20 x $0.75 = -0.15
  • New approximate Raw NAV: 0.45
This asymmetry is fundamental to binary markets: a losing resolution always costs the full current price, while a winning resolution only gains the remaining distance to $1.00.
A fully resolved series has a definitive terminal value. This terminal NAV is final and not subject to staleness, repricing, or revision.

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How Markets Are Selected

Markets are selected for inclusion in a series based on four criteria:
  1. Theme relevance – The market must directly relate to the series’ stated risk domain. A rate cut market belongs in a monetary policy series; an election market does not.
  2. Sufficient liquidity – The market should have enough order book depth to produce a reliable midprice signal. Very thinly traded markets can distort NAV through wide bid-ask spreads.
  3. Clear resolution criteria – The market must have unambiguous settlement rules. Markets with subjective or disputed resolution criteria are avoided because they introduce oracle risk.
  4. Appropriate time horizon – The market’s expected resolution date should fall within the series’ intended duration. A 2026 series should not include markets that resolve in 2030.
Market selection follows systematic, rules-based criteria – not discretionary judgment. The selection methodology is designed to be reproducible and auditable. The full eligibility thresholds and the weighting formula are published in Market Selection & Weighting.

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Composition Versioning

Each series composition is versioned with a unique identifier. If the composition changes (markets added or reweighted), a new version is recorded. All NAV computations reference their composition version, creating a complete audit trail of which markets and weights were used for each valuation.

NAV Methodology

How the index value is computed from underlying market prices.

Worked Examples

Step-by-step NAV calculations for different scenarios.

Market Selection & Weighting

The eligibility screens and weighting formula.

Risk Factors

Risks including concentration, correlation, and resolution risk.