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The single, dated record of every governance action across Belief indices: methodology changes (announced at least 5 calendar days before effect), composition changes (disclosed same-day at effectiveness), settlement exits, level corrections, and cessations (announced at least 30 calendar days before effect). Entries are append-only – they are never edited or removed. The governance framework itself is described on Index Governance.

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Log

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2026-08-09 – Launch notice: Belief Volatility and the Midterms Uncertainty Index (MIDVOL)

Type: Launch · Announced: 2026-08-09 · Effective: 2026-08-14 (announcement + 5 calendar days) Belief Systems will begin publishing a second benchmark family, Belief Volatility, on the effective date above. The first series is the Midterms Uncertainty Index (MIDVOL). Belief Volatility is a standardized estimate of how much prediction-market probabilities are expected to move over a stated horizon. It is not a directional view, not an investable product, and not an equivalent of an equity-market volatility index – the underlying is a probability, so the quantity being estimated is movement in belief, not in price. Values are quoted in probability points. MIDVOL measures the 2026 U.S. midterms balance-of-power distribution. Values publish at 1-day, 7-day and 30-day horizons; the bare ticker denotes the 30-day horizon. Full methodology, including a worked example reproducible from public information, is published at Belief Volatility methodology. On the effective date:
  • Official public history begins 2026-08-06 at 00:01:51 UTC, the first computation of the first complete day under the current methodology. Earlier computations were pre-launch testing and are not published. They are not deleted, and nothing published is ever restated.
  • Values are withheld, never adjusted. Each value passes published publication gates covering order-book depth, spread, price impact, no-arbitrage bounds and input freshness. When a gate fails, the affected value is withheld with the reason stated. The gate parameters themselves are published, so any flag can be checked against the tolerance it was measured against.
  • Corrections are appended, never rewritten. A corrected value publishes as a new revision at the same instant; the original stays exactly as published and remains retrievable.
  • Retirement is prospective and one-way. As the 2026 midterms resolve and the underlying markets reach their boundaries, the composite retires to per-leg publication under the same ticker rather than renormalizing over whatever remains. Retirement is disclosed and cannot be reversed.
  • History downloads. The public archive carries daily close rows, published in the monthly data drop, and remains downloadable for at least five years. The full 300-second panel is retained in the system of record and is available under licence.
Belief Systems is the administrator of both benchmark families under the same Index Governance framework – one changelog, one notice clock. From the effective date, any material change to MIDVOL carries the same 5-calendar-day notice as any other published benchmark. Anyone with questions or a prospective reliance interest should contact the administrator before the effective date.

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2026-08-02 – Adoption of the Index Governance framework

Type: Methodology change · Announced: 2026-08-02 · Effective: 2026-08-07 (announcement + 5 calendar days) Belief Systems adopts a formal index governance framework, published at Index Governance. Material changes taking effect on the effective date:
  • Maintenance criteria and rules-based deletion. Constituents were previously never removed outside settlement. From the effective date, a constituent failing the published maintenance criteria at two consecutive monthly reviews becomes a deletion candidate, and an extraordinary-deletion path exists for integrity events. Deletions are rules-based – there is no discretionary removal.
  • Monthly review window. Each index is reviewed against its criteria during the first seven calendar days of each month. The commitment is to the review; changes execute only when a review produces an approved change.
  • Pair-level eligibility. For paired indices, a market is admissible only if both legs pass inclusion criteria, enforced before any change executes.
  • Corrections regime. The existing no-silent-revision discipline is formalized: corrections above 10 basis points within 5 calendar days publish as labeled revisions with the original always retrievable; smaller or later errors are annotated.
  • Transition provision. Adopting maintenance criteria over indices that predate them requires a starting point. The baseline audit of 2026-08-01 – every live constituent evaluated on both legs against the published criteria, from full order-book and volume data – counts as the first maintenance review for strike purposes. A constituent that failed the maintenance criteria at that audit carries one strike at adoption; if it fails again at the first post-adoption monthly review it becomes a deletion candidate under the two-strike rule, and if it has recovered its strike is cleared. The resulting strike determinations publish with the first post-adoption review. This is the only respect in which pre-adoption data enters the new regime; no other rule applies retroactively.
Rationale: with the index data in public use, the administration practices that governed composition informally are now published, versioned, and binding on Belief Systems’ own process. History is unchanged: no published level or composition was restated in this adoption.

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2026-08-02 – Cessation notice: U.S. Latin American pair (USLATINT26, USLATSQ26)

Type: Cessation · Announced: 2026-08-02 · Effective: 2026-09-06 (30 calendar days after the governance framework takes effect) Belief Systems will discontinue the Belief U.S. Latin American Intervention Expectations 2026 Index (USLATINT26) and the Belief U.S. Latin American Status Quo Expectations 2026 Index (USLATSQ26) on the effective date above, under the cessation provisions of the Index Governance framework. Rationale: the 2026-08-01 baseline audit found the underlying markets too thin to support citation-grade index levels – no constituent of either index passes the published inclusion criteria on its held leg, and 74% (USLATINT26) and 64% (USLATSQ26) of index weight fails liquidity floors. These are Fixed (event-dated) indices whose composition cannot be changed under the methodology, so the deficiency cannot be cured by reconstitution. Discontinuation with notice is the appropriate remedy, rather than continued publication of levels the underlying books cannot support. Both indices publish normally until the effective date. On the effective date, final levels are fixed and archived, and full history for both indices remains publicly downloadable for at least five years. Belief Systems is not aware of any third-party reliance on these indices; anyone with a reliance interest should contact the administrator before the effective date.